Gas and Electricity Trends UK
Where UK gas and electricity prices are heading right now — built live from the same data powering Power Guardian UK's tariff comparisons, cap tracker and 6-month forecast model.
vs. Apr 23
£1352 lower per year
Octopus Energy
12-month price trend
The Ofgem dual-fuel cap and the cheapest tracked deal across the last year, plotted against wholesale gas — the dominant driver of UK electricity pricing.
- Avg cap
- Best deal
- Gas
6-month forecast
Power Guardian UK's outlook for the Ofgem cap and the cheapest achievable fixed deal over the next 6 months. Trend currently leaning rising.
- Cap est.
- Best deal est.
What's driving the trend right now
Wholesale gas
NBP gas is the price-setter for both UK gas bills and roughly one-third of electricity generation. Recent moves are downward vs. 12 months ago, which typically feeds into the next cap review with a 1–2 quarter lag.
Electricity mix
Wind and solar drive average wholesale prices down on high generation days, but gas plants still set the marginal price most evenings. Cold, low-wind weeks remain the biggest short-term risk to bills.
LNG & storage
UK gas storage is small relative to demand, so the country relies heavily on LNG cargoes. Strong Asian demand pulls cargoes away from Europe and pushes UK wholesale prices up.
Switching savings
The cheapest tracked deal is currently around £1638/yr vs. an average tracked bill of £1713/yr. Most households still overpay £200–£500 by staying on a default variable tariff.
UK wholesale market snapshot
Latest UK wholesale price points tracked by Power Guardian UK.
Want a personal verdict?
Run our live "Should I fix my energy tariff?" check or jump into the full 2026 forecast for a quarter-by-quarter view.