UK Gas & Electricity Price History
A month-by-month record of what UK gas and electricity actually cost over the last year, built from the same data powering PowerGuardian's tariff comparisons and cap tracker.
vs. Apr 23
£1352 lower per year
Octopus Energy
12-month price trend
The Ofgem dual-fuel cap and the cheapest tracked deal across the last year, plotted against wholesale gas — the dominant driver of UK electricity pricing.
- Avg cap
- Best deal
- Gas
What comes next
We have no verified forecast beyond 1 October – 31 December 2026
Our forward estimates for later cap periods are not currently backed by a calculation we can show you. They are produced automatically each week without a recorded input dataset, so we cannot say which wholesale prices, network costs or policy costs produced each figure, and no person has checked them against a source.
Rather than show a number we cannot stand behind, we show only the cap periods Ofgem has already confirmed.
What's driving the trend right now
Wholesale gas
NBP gas is the price-setter for both UK gas bills and roughly one-third of electricity generation. Recent moves are downward vs. 12 months ago, which typically feeds into the next cap review with a 1–2 quarter lag.
Electricity mix
Wind and solar drive average wholesale prices down on high generation days, but gas plants still set the marginal price most evenings. Cold, low-wind weeks remain the biggest short-term risk to bills.
LNG & storage
UK gas storage is small relative to demand, so the country relies heavily on LNG cargoes. Strong Asian demand pulls cargoes away from Europe and pushes UK wholesale prices up.
Switching savings
The cheapest tracked deal is currently around £1460/yr vs. an average tracked bill of £1544/yr. Most households still overpay £200–£500 by staying on a default variable tariff.
UK wholesale market snapshot
Latest UK wholesale price points tracked by PowerGuardian.
Want a personal verdict?
Run our live "Should I fix my energy tariff?" check or jump into the full 2026 forecast for a quarter-by-quarter view.