Updated 16 June 2026

    UK Energy Price Forecast

    Our weekly outlook on where UK energy bills are heading over the next 6 months — based on wholesale gas markets, Ofgem cap movements and storage levels.

    FD

    Power Guardian Forecasting Desk

    Price prediction & wholesale market analysis

    Based on UK household dataUpdated dailyIndependentEstimates are indicativeMethodology

    Key insights at a glance

    • Short-term softening expected as wholesale gas eases
    • Medium-term risk: prices could rise into next winter
    • Fixed deals can hedge against winter increases
    • Most households still overpay £200–£500/year

    Live forecast figures

    Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep)

    £1,680

    Cap estimate · Best deal ~£1,550

    Confidence: high

    Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec)

    £1,790

    Cap estimate · Best deal ~£1,650

    Confidence: high

    Q1 2027 (Jan-Mar)

    £1,850

    Cap estimate · Best deal ~£1,700

    Confidence: medium

    Q2 2027 (Apr-Jun)

    £1,720

    Cap estimate · Best deal ~£1,590

    Confidence: medium

    Short term (1–3 mo)

    Mild downward pressure expected as wholesale gas eases from winter peaks and storage rebuilds.

    Medium term (4–6 mo)

    Renewed risk into next winter; geopolitical events and LNG competition could push the cap back up.

    What this means for your bill

    For a typical UK home using 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas, every 5% movement in the cap is worth roughly £90/year. If you're on a standard variable tariff, you'll feel the full impact when the cap moves. If you're on a fixed deal, you're shielded until renewal.

    Should you fix now?

    With short-term softening but medium-term risk, locking in a competitively priced fixed tariff now can hedge against winter increases — provided exit fees stay reasonable.

    Check your energy costs now

    See in 30 seconds whether you're overpaying — and how much you could save.

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    Related reading

    Sources

    Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.

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    Forecasts are estimates based on public market data and are not financial advice. See our methodology for full details.