Reviewed 15 September 2026
Peter Flynn
Founder & research lead, PowerGuardian
In summary: are prices going up or down?
Up, on current evidence. Ofgem has confirmed a 4% increase from 1 October – 31 December 2026, taking its benchmark annual figure from £1,663 to £1,723.
The next unannounced quarter: Cornwall Insight forecasts £1,872 a year for 1 January – 31 March 2027 — about £149 higher than the confirmed 1 October – 31 December 2026 figure, around 9%. Both figures use Ofgem's current typical-consumption basis and Direct Debit, so they are directly comparable. This is Cornwall Insight's forecast, not ours, and not an Ofgem figure.
Published and uncertain: Cornwall Insight published this on 26 August 2026, built from market figures at close of play on 25 August 2026. The main uncertainty is wholesale gas: it is over 40% of the cap and unsettled until shortly before Ofgem announces. Cornwall Insight states that the January figure will not be confirmed until November, and that there remains a lot of time for wholesale market conditions to shift.
Source published 26 August 2026 · Last verified here 17 September 2026. The verification date changes only when a person re-reads these figures against the publisher's own page — never on a visit or a deployment.
Quarterly outlook at a glance
Ofgem's cap applies to Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) — not Northern Ireland, which has a separate regulator. Every figure below is an annualised benchmark on the same basis — Ofgem's 2026 Typical Domestic Consumption Values at medium consumption (dual fuel), paying by Direct Debit. It is a way of comparing quarters against each other, not a prediction of what any household will spend over the next year.
| Period | Annualised benchmark | Change on previous quarter | Status | Source & published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 July – 30 September 2026 | £1,663a year | — | ConfirmedConfirmed — in force now | OfgemPublished 26 Aug 2026Verified here 15 Sept 2026 |
| 1 October – 31 December 2026 | £1,723a year | +£60+4% on the same basis | ConfirmedConfirmed — announced | OfgemPublished 26 Aug 2026Verified here 15 Sept 2026 |
| 1 January – 31 March 2027 | £1,872a year | +£149+9% on the same basis | ForecastForecast | Cornwall InsightPublished 26 Aug 2026Verified here 17 Sept 2026 |
| 1 April – 30 June 2027 | No figure | — | None publishedNo verified forecast available | — |
- 1 January – 31 March 2027: Cornwall Insight states that the January figure will not be confirmed until November, and that there remains a lot of time for wholesale market conditions to shift.
- 1 April – 30 June 2027: No forecaster we can name and date has published a figure for this period yet. The VAT cut on electricity is due to end on 31 March 2027, which will affect it, but we will not put a number on that ourselves.
Confirmed cap periods and the published forecast
Solid line: confirmed by Ofgem. Dashed line: forecast by Cornwall Insight, not confirmed.
- Verified history
- Central forecast
Estimate what this means for your household
These are benchmark figures for one assumed household. Put your own kWh usage, unit rates and standing charges into the free calculator to compare what you actually pay against the capped rates.
Compare my usage and ratesIt works out your annual cost from the figures you enter and ranks it against the tariffs we track, showing exit fees separately. Guidance based on your inputs — not a whole-of-market comparison or a switching service.
What has changed?
Ofgem confirmed the 1 October – 31 December 2026 cap on 26 August 2026 at £1,723 — 4% above the 1 July – 30 September 2026 figure of £1,663, or about £60 a year on that benchmark. Ofgem attributes the rise to higher wholesale gas costs, partly offset by the removal of VAT from electricity bills.
For 1 January – 31 March 2027, the 26 August 2026 figure of £1,872 is the first Cornwall Insight forecast we have recorded for that quarter, so we cannot yet show you how it has been revised. Cornwall Insight updates its forecast as market data moves; when we record a later figure for the same quarter, the change will appear here with both dates. We will not reconstruct a revision history we did not capture at the time.
Why could prices change?
Cornwall Insight's stated reasoning for its 1 January – 31 March 2027 forecast, summarised:
- •Wholesale energy makes up over 40% of the cap, and gas prices have spiked on mixed signals over the next stages of the US–Iran conflict.
- •A summer heatwave across Europe, supply disruption in Norway and strong Asian demand have left winter gas stocks low, particularly in continental Europe.
- •January falls at the coldest point of the year, so colder weather, displaced global supply and low stocks keep prices higher in the short to medium term.
Read it in full at Cornwall Insight — Bills to Climb in October, With Worse to Come in January. Wholesale costs are the largest single component of the cap and the main reason it moves between quarters; network costs, policy costs, supplier operating allowances and bad-debt allowances make up most of the rest.
What could this mean for your household?
- On a standard variable tariff. Your rates follow the cap, so the confirmed 1 October – 31 December 2026 rates will apply automatically, and any January change would too if it lands as forecast. Nothing needs doing to receive it — but it is the point at which comparing a fixed offer against your own usage is most worthwhile.
- Part-way through a fixed deal. Your rates do not move with the cap. Whether your fix is now good value depends on its rates against the capped rates for your region and your usage — and on any exit fee if you were to leave early.
- A fix ending soon. You will roll onto the variable tariff at capped rates unless you choose something else. Compare any offer you are given against the capped rates for the period it covers, on your own kWh.
We are not telling you to fix, and no one can promise a saving: a forecast for the cap says nothing about whether a particular fixed offer beats it for your usage. The one thing that answers it is your own numbers — compare your own usage and rates in the bill calculator.
What these rates mean for three illustrative households
These are illustrative households, not observed customer results. Each row applies published unit rates and standing charges to a stated annual consumption, using the same calculation as our Energy Bill Calculator: (annual kWh × unit rate in pence, plus daily standing charge × 365) ÷ 100, worked out separately for gas and electricity and then added together. We do not derive unit rates from a headline annual figure. The confirmed columns use Ofgem's rates; the forecast column uses the rates Cornwall Insight publishes for 1 January – 31 March 2027, and is that organisation's forecast rather than a confirmed figure.
Lower use
1,800 kWh electricity · 7,500 kWh gas a year
PowerGuardian illustration — a smaller or well-insulated home
In force now — confirmed
1 July – 30 September 2026
- Electricity
- £679
- Gas
- £656
- A year in total
- £1,334
Announced — confirmed
1 October – 31 December 2026
- Electricity
- £674
- Gas
- £706
- A year in total
- £1,380
Forecast — Cornwall Insight
1 January – 31 March 2027
- Electricity
- £711
- Gas
- £784
- A year in total
- £1,494
Difference between the two confirmed periods on this usage: +£46 a year. This is the effect of the rate change alone — the usage is held the same in every column.
If Cornwall Insight's forecast rates were confirmed, the change from the announced period on this usage would be +£114 a year. That is a forecast, not a confirmed figure.
Typical use
2,500 kWh electricity · 9,500 kWh gas a year
Ofgem Typical Domestic Consumption Values, medium consumption
In force now — confirmed
1 July – 30 September 2026
- Electricity
- £861
- Gas
- £802
- A year in total
- £1,664
Announced — confirmed
1 October – 31 December 2026
- Electricity
- £858
- Gas
- £865
- A year in total
- £1,724
Forecast — Cornwall Insight
1 January – 31 March 2027
- Electricity
- £909
- Gas
- £962
- A year in total
- £1,871
Difference between the two confirmed periods on this usage: +£60 a year. This is the effect of the rate change alone — the usage is held the same in every column.
If Cornwall Insight's forecast rates were confirmed, the change from the announced period on this usage would be +£148 a year. That is a forecast, not a confirmed figure.
Higher use
4,000 kWh electricity · 14,000 kWh gas a year
PowerGuardian illustration — a larger home or higher heating demand
In force now — confirmed
1 July – 30 September 2026
- Electricity
- £1,253
- Gas
- £1,132
- A year in total
- £2,385
Announced — confirmed
1 October – 31 December 2026
- Electricity
- £1,253
- Gas
- £1,224
- A year in total
- £2,477
Forecast — Cornwall Insight
1 January – 31 March 2027
- Electricity
- £1,334
- Gas
- £1,365
- A year in total
- £2,699
Difference between the two confirmed periods on this usage: +£92 a year. This is the effect of the rate change alone — the usage is held the same in every column.
If Cornwall Insight's forecast rates were confirmed, the change from the announced period on this usage would be +£222 a year. That is a forecast, not a confirmed figure.
Limitations of this comparison
- Rates are Great Britain national averages. Your region's rates differ, and the cap does not apply in Northern Ireland.
- Direct Debit, single-rate meter, 365 days. Prepayment and standard credit rates differ.
- Rates are used exactly as published, so VAT treatment follows the period: 5% on both fuels now, and no VAT on electricity from October 2026 to March 2027.
- The 1 January – 31 March 2027 column is Cornwall Insight's forecast, published 26 August 2026. Ofgem has not confirmed it and may confirm something different.
- Totals recomputed from published rates can differ by a pound or two from a publisher's own headline figure, because the rates are published rounded to the nearest 0.01p.
- Debt, credit on your account, discounts and mid-period tariff changes are not included.
Confirmed Ofgem price cap in detail
Both figures below are set and published by Ofgem for Great Britain. Neither is a forecast.
In force now — confirmed
1 July – 30 September 2026
£1,663
A year on Ofgem's own typical-consumption benchmark, Direct Debit, dual fuel. Not the amount every household pays.
- Electricity 26.11p per kWh, 57.19p a day
- Gas 7.33p per kWh, 29.04p a day
- Electricity and gas rates include VAT at 5%.
- On the older 2023 consumption values this period is £1,862.
- Source: Ofgem — Energy price cap will rise by 4% from October 2026, published 26 August 2026 — published rates for this period. Data last checked 15 September 2026.
Announced and confirmed
1 October – 31 December 2026
£1,723
A year on Ofgem's own typical-consumption benchmark, Direct Debit, dual fuel. Not the amount every household pays.
- Electricity 26.32p per kWh, 54.83p a day
- Gas 7.97p per kWh, 29.68p a day
- Government has removed VAT from domestic electricity between 1 October 2026 and 31 March 2027, so the electricity rates carry no VAT. Gas still includes VAT at 5%.
- On the older 2023 consumption values this period is £1,935.
- Source: Ofgem — Energy price cap will rise by 4% from October 2026, published 26 August 2026 — published rates for this period. Data last checked 15 September 2026.
Forecast — not confirmed by Ofgem
1 January – 31 March 2027
£1,872
- Electricity £911 a year, gas £962 a year, as Cornwall Insight publishes the split.
- Electricity 28.33p per kWh, 55.00p a day; gas 8.94p per kWh, 31.00p a day — published by Cornwall Insight, not derived by us from the annual figure.
- Includes the government's cut to VAT on electricity bills announced on 21 July 2026, which runs to 31 March 2027. Gas still carries VAT at 5%.
- Consumption basis: Ofgem's current (2026) Typical Domestic Consumption Values — 2,500 kWh electricity, 9,500 kWh gas, dual fuel.
- Payment method: Direct Debit. Coverage: Great Britain national average.
- On the older 2023 consumption values this forecast is £2,107.
- Source: Cornwall Insight — Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap) Predictions & Insights, published 26 August 2026. Verified here 17 September 2026.
The assumptions behind these annual figures
- Consumption: Ofgem's 2026 Typical Domestic Consumption Values at medium consumption (dual fuel)
- Payment method: Direct Debit
- Area: Average across England, Scotland and Wales — the cap does not apply in Northern Ireland
Ofgem reduced its Typical Domestic Consumption Values in the 2026 review, so its headline annual figure fell even though rates did not. Elsewhere on PowerGuardian the same cap period is shown on the older 2023 consumption values, which is why you may see £1,862 for the current period.
The cap limits unit rates and standing charges, not a household's total bill. What you actually pay depends on how much energy you use, your region, meter type, payment method and tariff.
How to read the figures on this page
- Confirmed Ofgem price cap figures. Set and published by Ofgem, with the publication and date shown beside them. Either in force now or announced to start later.
- Externally published forecasts. Forward cap estimates from a named forecaster, shown with that organisation's name, its original publication, the date it published and the date we last checked it. They are that organisation's figures, not ours, and Ofgem can confirm something different.
- PowerGuardian illustrative scenarios. Arithmetic on published rates — for example the household comparison above. These are illustrations, not predictions, and are labelled wherever they appear.
Where no forecaster we can cite has published a figure, the outlook table says so rather than filling the gap. We do not produce our own cap forecasts and never present someone else's as ours.
How this page is kept accurate
- Source published
- 26 August 2026
- Ofgem cap announcement
- Checked by hand
- 17 September 2026
- Ofgem and forecast figures read back against their publications
- Automated check
- Every morning — Ofgem only
- Confirmed cap pages, never the forecast
Written and checked by Peter Flynn, PowerGuardian's founder. Cap figures are read from the Ofgem publication named below and checked by hand on the review date. There is no separate expert panel and no independent third-party review of this page.
Every morning we read Ofgem's own price cap pages automatically. When Ofgem announces a new cap period, its annual benchmark figure appears here the same day, labelled as machine-read until a person has checked it — and it then replaces any forecast for that quarter in the table above. That automated check cannot update an external forecast: forecasts are stored separately and only change when a person re-reads the publisher's page, so we make no claim of automatic forecast updates.
What moves the cap
Ofgem resets the cap every three months. Wholesale gas and electricity costs are the largest single component and the main reason the figure moves between periods; network costs, policy costs, supplier operating allowances and bad-debt allowances make up most of the rest. Cap periods covering winter carry higher demand, but the cap limits rates rather than seasonal totals — a winter bill is larger mainly because a household uses more energy, not only because the rate changed.
As an arithmetic illustration on the 1 October – 31 December 2026 benchmark figure of £1,723: a 5% change in the cap is worth around £86 a year on that benchmark. Your own figure scales with your own usage.
Can a forecast tell you whether to fix?
Not on its own. A cap forecast says something about the default variable tariff, not about a particular fixed offer. Whether a fixed deal is good value for you depends on its unit rates and standing charges against your actual usage, how long it runs, any exit fee, and what you would otherwise pay — none of which a cap figure tells you.
We do not claim that most households are overpaying. We have no current dated evidence for that about UK households as a whole, so the only honest way to answer it is to compare your own rates and usage.
One supplier we have a commercial arrangement with. This is not a whole-market comparison, we are not saying they are cheapest, and it never affects our scores or ordering — check their rates against your own usage.
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Related reading
Sources
- Ofgem — Energy price cap — UK regulator's quarterly price cap announcements
- Ofgem — Default tariff cap & wholesale charges — Wholesale & policy cost breakdowns
- DESNZ — UK energy statistics — Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.
Cap figures on this page were read from Ofgem — Energy price cap will rise by 4% from October 2026 (published 26 August 2026) and the published rates for that period. Forecast figures were read from Cornwall Insight — Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap) Predictions & Insights (published 26 August 2026).
Forecast information is general guidance based on public market data and third-party forecasts, not financial advice. See our methodology for full details.