Updated 1 August 2026
PowerGuardian Forecasting Desk
Price prediction & wholesale market analysis
Official current price-cap period
£1,663
Q3 2026 (1 Jul – 30 Sep 2026) — an illustration at the current Ofgem-capped unit rates and standing charges using the stated typical-consumption benchmark. This is not a forecast, and it is not the amount every household will pay. Figures below are PowerGuardian forecasts, retrieved from a separate forecast record.
Key insights at a glance
- Short-term softening expected as wholesale gas eases
- Medium-term risk: prices could rise into next winter
- Fixed deals can hedge against winter increases
- Most households still overpay on default variable tariffs
PowerGuardian forecast (next 12 months)
Forecast estimates for upcoming Ofgem cap periods. These are PowerGuardian's own modelled figures — not official Ofgem confirmations.
PowerGuardian forecast
Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep)
£1,862
Illustrative annual figure at the modelled cap using the stated typical-consumption benchmark.
Confidence: high
PowerGuardian forecast
Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec)
£1,790
Illustrative annual figure at the modelled cap using the stated typical-consumption benchmark.
Confidence: high
PowerGuardian forecast
Q1 2027 (Jan-Mar)
£1,850
Illustrative annual figure at the modelled cap using the stated typical-consumption benchmark.
Confidence: medium
PowerGuardian forecast
Q2 2027 (Apr-Jun)
£1,720
Illustrative annual figure at the modelled cap using the stated typical-consumption benchmark.
Confidence: medium
Mild downward pressure expected as wholesale gas eases from winter peaks and storage rebuilds.
Renewed risk into next winter; geopolitical events and LNG competition could push the cap back up.
What this means for your bill
Every 5% movement in the cap is worth roughly £90/year on a typical dual-fuel bill. If you're on a standard variable tariff, you'll feel the full impact when the cap moves. If you're on a fixed deal, you're shielded until renewal.
Should you fix now?
With short-term softening but medium-term risk, locking in a competitively priced fixed tariff now can hedge against winter increases — provided exit fees stay reasonable.
Check your energy costs now
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Sources
- Ofgem — Energy price cap — UK regulator's quarterly price cap announcements
- Ofgem — Default tariff cap & wholesale charges — Wholesale & policy cost breakdowns
- Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) — AGSI — European gas storage levels
- NESO (National Energy System Operator) — System data — Electricity demand, supply mix and grid data
- DESNZ — UK energy statistics — Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.
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Forecasts are estimates based on public market data and are not financial advice. See our methodology for full details.