What would push prices down
- Sustained falls in European wholesale gas (TTF).
- A mild winter reducing heating demand across the EU.
- Faster build-out of renewables and grid storage.
- Stable LNG supply from the US and Qatar.
- Easing of network and policy cost recovery.
What forecasters expect
Most analyst forecasts suggest the Ofgem cap will move in a narrow band over the next 6 months, with a modest downward bias if wholesale prices stay stable. Power Guardian publishes a 6-month cap and best-deal forecast updated daily.
See the 6-month forecast