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    When Will Energy Prices Drop in the UK?

    UK energy prices are unlikely to return to pre-2021 levels in the short term. But meaningful relief is possible if a few key drivers move in the right direction.

    What would push prices down

    • Sustained falls in European wholesale gas (TTF).
    • A mild winter reducing heating demand across the EU.
    • Faster build-out of renewables and grid storage.
    • Stable LNG supply from the US and Qatar.
    • Easing of network and policy cost recovery.

    What forecasters expect

    Most analyst forecasts suggest the Ofgem cap will move in a narrow band over the next 6 months, with a modest downward bias if wholesale prices stay stable. PowerGuardian publishes a 6-month cap and best-deal forecast refreshed weekly.

    See the 6-month forecast

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