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    UK energy price forecast through 2026

    Six-month outlook combining wholesale gas, Ofgem cap modelling and seasonal demand. Includes winter spike risk and best-deal projections.

    Ofgem price cap

    £1,568

    Typical annual bill

    6-month direction

    -8.7%

    Predicted bill change

    View Full Forecast
    Average annual bill (£)
    Price cap Best deal
    May 23Jul 23Sep 23Nov 23Jan 24Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep)Q4 2027 (Oct-Dec)£0£850£1700£2550£3400

    Seasonal note: forecast assumes typical UK winter demand and current wholesale gas trajectory. High-confidence band within ±5%.

    Where our numbers come from

    Credible figures, transparent methodology

    Every price and forecast on Power Guardian is checked against primary UK sources before publication. Here's exactly what we use and when it was last verified.

    Data last verified

    • Supplier tariffsabout 15 hours ago
    • Price historyabout 15 hours ago
    • Forecastsabout 15 hours ago
    • Global marketsabout 15 hours ago
    • Energy newsabout 15 hours ago

    How we calculate

    • Annual costs use Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Values (2,700 kWh electricity, 11,500 kWh gas) for a medium household.
    • Standing charges and unit rates are taken from published supplier tariff sheets, not promotional estimates.
    • Forecasts combine wholesale gas pricing, Ofgem cap modelling and seasonal demand — with confidence bands shown in full.
    Read full methodology
    Today's market

    Every UK supplier, ranked by price

    Last verified about 15 hours ago

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    UK average: ~2,900 kWh

    UK average: ~12,000 kWh

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    ✓ Based on UK household data (Ofgem TDCV)✓ Updated daily with current market data✓ Estimates are indicative — for guidance onlyMethodology
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    3

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    Estimates use Ofgem typical-use figures. See how we calculate costs.

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