How we reached this verdict
We compare the cheapest fixed deal currently available against the average predicted Ofgem cap over the next two quarters. If a fix is meaningfully cheaper AND prices look set to rise, fixing wins. If the cap is set to fall and the saving is small, waiting wins.
Fix saves vs predicted cap
£275/yr
Average fixed deal
£1556/yr
Average variable deal
£1514/yr
Fixed vs variable vs predicted cap
Annual cost comparison using the cheapest live deals on PowerGuardian and our forecast cap.
12-month UK price history
How the average Ofgem cap has moved versus the best deal on the market.
- Avg cap
- Best deal
6-month price cap forecast
Our model's outlook for the Ofgem cap and the best achievable fixed-deal pricing.
- Predicted cap
- Best fixed estimate
How we forecast
Full transparency on the data, signals and rules behind today's verdict. Tap any step to expand.
Fix now if…
- • A fixed deal beats your projected cap cost by £100+/yr
- • Exit fees are £75 or less per fuel
- • You value bill certainty for budgeting
- • Wholesale gas is signalling upward pressure
Wait if…
- • Forecasts point to a falling cap and fixed deals are above it
- • The saving is under £50/yr — not worth the lock-in
- • Exit fees are high or terms are 24 months+
- • You expect to move home within the fix period
Get a personal answer in 60 seconds
Run your real kWh usage through our Bill Calculator, then compare it against today's cheapest fixed deals.