Updated 15 September 2026
Peter Flynn
Founder & research lead, PowerGuardian
Key insights
- The cap is reviewed every 3 months by Ofgem
- Wholesale gas drives ~70% of the cap movement
- Cap is a limit, not a target — fixed deals often beat it
- Whether a fixed deal beats the cap depends on your own usage and rates
Price cap by quarter
We have no verified forecast beyond 1 October – 31 December 2026
Our forward estimates for later cap periods are not currently backed by a calculation we can show you. They are produced automatically each week without a recorded input dataset, so we cannot say which wholesale prices, network costs or policy costs produced each figure, and no person has checked them against a source.
Rather than show a number we cannot stand behind, we show only the cap periods Ofgem has already confirmed.
What this means for your household bill
The price cap sets the maximum unit rate suppliers can charge you on a standard variable tariff. If the cap rises by £100, a typical home pays roughly £8.30 more per month.
- On a standard variable tariff? You'll feel every cap change directly.
- On a fixed deal? You're protected until your contract ends.
- On prepayment? The cap applies but standing charges hit hardest.
Don't assume the cap is the cheapest deal
The cap is a maximum, not a market price. Whether a fixed deal beats it depends on the rates you're offered, your own usage and any exit fee.
Wondering what this means for your tariff?
Use our free tool to assess your options. Forecasts are only part of the decision: your usage, tariff rates and any exit fees also matter.
Work out my annual costRelated reading
Sources
- Ofgem — Energy price cap — UK regulator's quarterly price cap announcements
- Ofgem — Default tariff cap & wholesale charges — Wholesale & policy cost breakdowns
- Ofgem — Typical Domestic Consumption Values — Standard usage assumptions for UK households
- DESNZ — UK energy statistics — Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.
Predictions are estimates based on wholesale market data and Ofgem methodology. Not financial advice. See our methodology.