UK Energy Forecast: Autumn & Winter 2026
Our outlook for UK gas and electricity prices this winter, updated in November 2026 with the confirmed October cap and the latest dated forecasts for January 2027.
UK Energy Forecast: Autumn & Winter 2026
Updated 3 November 2026. We first published this outlook in June 2026, when our model pointed to a modest rise this winter. Wholesale gas then climbed far faster than that model allowed for, so we have rewritten the forecast sections below with the latest confirmed figures and dated forecasts from named sources.
Where prices stand now
October–December 2026 (confirmed): Ofgem set the cap at £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit, up 4% on July–September (£1,663). For Oct–Dec 2026, average rates are 26.32p/kWh and 54.83p/day for electricity, and 7.97p/kWh and 29.68p/day for gas. VAT: Electricity carries no VAT from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 (extended in the 28 October Budget). Gas still includes 5% VAT, so electricity figures cannot be compared directly with earlier periods. Extra help: The Budget also confirmed a one-off £100 Household Energy Payment from January 2027 for eligible homes in Council Tax bands A to D in England.
January 2027: what the forecasts say
Ofgem will announce the January to March 2027 figure by 25 November 2026. It is based on wholesale prices between mid-August and mid-November, and that window is almost over, so the forecasts below are firmer than they were in September.
| Forecaster | Date of forecast | January–March 2027 (typical use, Direct Debit) | Change vs £1,723 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Cornwall Insight | 30 September 2026 | £1,999 | +16% | | E.ON Next | 26 October 2026 | £2,183 | +27% | | British Gas | 30 October 2026 | £2,185 | +27% |
These are forecasts, not the confirmed figure. Supplier forecasts have risen through October as wholesale gas hit new highs, so Cornwall Insight's September figure now looks low. We will not publish a number of our own.
What changed since June
1. Wholesale gas: the main driver
In June, day-ahead UK gas (NBP) traded below 100p a therm. On 30 October 2026 it settled at 241.8p a therm, with gas for January to March 2027 delivery trading at around 238p. Dutch TTF gas, the European benchmark, was close to €100/MWh. Our June model assumed TTF would stay between €38 and €45/MWh this winter, which is why it was wrong.
2. Gas storage: the UK's weak point
Related energy-saving tips
- Review your standing charges — Standing charges are a daily fee you pay regardless of use, and they vary by region and supplier.
- Set heating timers and schedules — Heating an empty home wastes energy. A schedule makes the heating come on when you need it and go off when you don't.
- Turn your thermostat down by 1°C — Lowering the room temperature by a single degree reduces how hard your heating works, and most people barely notice the difference.