Summary
Energy bill payers are facing a predicted rise in the Ofgem price cap, expected to reach around £1,780 for the average household from October (Q4 2026). This increase, driven by firming wholesale gas prices and anticipated winter demand, marks a significant jump from current levels. Despite this, positive developments like new bill discount schemes and an expanded Demand Flexibility Service offer some avenues for support.
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What this means in plain English
Simply put, your energy bills are likely to get more expensive as we head into winter. The main reason for this is that the cost of gas that suppliers buy is going up, and everyone expects to use more energy when it gets colder.
However, it's not all bad news. Some initiatives are aiming to help households: - Bill Discount Schemes: New local projects are launching, offering discounts of up to £250 off energy bills for participating communities. Check if your area is included. - Targeted Support: A proposal suggests cutting £175 from energy bills for low-income households (earning £24,000 or less), which could benefit over four-fifths of the poorest families if implemented. - Pensioner and Benefit Help: Many pensioners and those on specific benefits could be eligible for £150 off their energy bills but might not be claiming it. - Demand Flexibility Service (DFS): This scheme is growing, allowing you to get paid for reducing your electricity use during peak times, which helps balance the national grid.
On the supply side, the UK is making good progress with renewable energy, with wind power contributing significantly. However, connecting new offshore wind farms to the grid is proving to be a challenge, which could slow down our move to cleaner energy.
How this affects your household bill
From October 2026, the average household on a standard variable tariff (SVT) is likely to see their annual energy bill increase by approximately £180 if the price cap reaches £1,780. This translates to about £15 more per month compared to the current cap.
Both gas and electricity unit rates are expected to rise. Standing charges, which are daily fixed fees you pay regardless of usage, are also influenced by the cap and may see adjustments. Those on prepayment meters will experience the same unit rate increases.
Households using electricity for heating or those with higher-than-average energy consumption will feel this increase more acutely. If you're on a fixed-rate tariff, your bills won't change until your current deal ends. EDF has launched a new 12-month fixed tariff in anticipation of cap rises, which might be an option for some.
Crucially, if you qualify for any of the support schemes mentioned, such as the local Bill Discount Schemes, the proposed low-income support, or the £150 discount for pensioners and benefit recipients, these could significantly offset the predicted increases.
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Shop on Amazon### Why are energy bills expected to rise in October? Energy bills are predicted to rise primarily due to an increase in wholesale gas prices and the anticipated higher demand for heating during the colder winter months. These factors drive up the costs for energy suppliers, which are then reflected in the Ofgem price cap.
What is the predicted new price cap level?
The Ofgem price cap is currently forecast to rise to approximately £1,780 for the average household from October 2026. This figure reflects the maximum amount suppliers can charge per unit of energy and daily standing charge.
Are there any new support schemes available to help with bills?
Yes, there are several initiatives. New local Bill Discount Scheme projects are emerging, offering up to £250 off for eligible communities, and there's a proposal for a £175 discount for low-income households. Additionally, £150 discounts are available for pensioners and those on certain benefits, which many might not be claiming.
How does the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) work?
The Demand Flexibility Service allows consumers to earn rewards by reducing their electricity consumption during specific peak hours when the grid is under strain. By shifting heavy usage, such as running washing machines, to off-peak times, participants can save money and help stabilise the national electricity supply.
Should I consider a fixed-rate tariff now?
With the price cap predicted to rise, considering a fixed-rate tariff might be a good option for some households looking for budget certainty. Companies like EDF are launching new fixed deals in anticipation of these increases, which could lock in a rate below future cap levels for 12 months. However, it's important to compare offers carefully, as fixed rates can sometimes be higher than current cap levels.