Summary
Wholesale gas price volatility, exacerbated by a recent conflict in the Middle East causing a temporary 20% drop in global LNG supply, is driving up forecasts for the upcoming winter energy price cap. Experts predict the cap will rise to around £1,780 for Q4 2026 (October-December), an increase from the current £1,663, impacting most households with higher bills.
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What this means in plain English
Simply put, the cost of the gas and electricity you use is expected to go up significantly this winter. This is largely due to global events impacting the supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) — gas that has been super-cooled to be shipped around the world. A conflict in the Middle East has temporarily reduced this global supply, which creates scarcity and pushes up prices for everyone, including in the UK.
Here's a breakdown: - Wholesale Gas Prices: The global price of gas has been extremely volatile. Recent disruptions have pushed these prices up, particularly for the winter months when demand is highest. - Energy Price Cap: Ofgem, the energy regulator, sets a maximum price that suppliers can charge per unit of energy. This cap is reviewed every three months and directly reflects wholesale costs. - Winter Impact: With higher wholesale costs, the energy price cap for October to December is expected to rise. This means that if you're on a standard variable tariff, your bills will increase. - Global Supply Issues: While global LNG supply grew over the last winter, recent events have seen a significant drop, causing market uncertainty and price spikes.
How this affects your household bill
If you are on a standard variable tariff (SVT), which most UK households are, you can expect your energy bills to rise from October. Based on the forecasted cap of around £1,780 for Q4 2026, a typical household will see an increase of approximately £117 per year, or just under £10 per month, compared to the current cap of £1,663. However, this is an average, and your actual increase will depend on your usage.
- Gas and Electricity: Both gas and electricity unit rates and potentially standing charges are likely to increase under the new cap.
- Timing: These changes will come into effect from 1 October 2026, affecting your bills through the peak winter months.
- Most Exposed: Households on standard variable tariffs, particularly those with high energy consumption (e.g., larger homes, electric heating, or poor insulation), will feel the impact most directly. Prepayment meter customers are also subject to the price cap and will see their costs rise.
- Fixed Deals: If you are on a fixed-rate tariff, your payments will remain stable until your deal ends. However, new fixed deals entering the market may reflect these higher wholesale costs.
Check My Bill
With forecasts pointing to higher winter bills, now is the ideal time to check your current energy tariff and ensure you're not overpaying. Many households could find better deals than their current standard variable tariff. Use our free Bill Checker to see in 30 seconds — most users find savings of £200-£500 per year.
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Shop on Amazon### Why are energy prices rising for winter 2026? Energy prices are forecast to rise for winter 2026 primarily due to increased wholesale gas costs. Global events, including a conflict in the Middle East, have led to a significant, albeit temporary, reduction in global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supply, driving up market prices.
What is the new energy price cap expected to be?
The energy price cap for Q4 2026 (October-December) is currently forecast to be around £1,780 for a typical household. This is an increase from the current price cap of £1,663, meaning higher costs for most bill payers.
When will these higher prices take effect?
The new energy price cap, reflecting these higher wholesale costs, is expected to come into effect from 1 October 2026. This means your energy bills will likely increase for the gas and electricity you use from that date onwards.
Who will be most affected by this price rise?
Households on standard variable tariffs will be most directly affected, as their prices are dictated by the energy price cap. Those with higher energy consumption or who use electricity for heating may also see a more significant impact on their overall bills.
Can I do anything to reduce my energy bills this winter?
Yes, you can. Consider checking if you can switch to a new fixed-rate deal before the price cap rises further, though new fixed deals may also reflect higher wholesale costs. Additionally, focus on energy-saving habits like blocking draughts, taking shorter showers, and ensuring your heating system is efficient.