Executive summary
The UK Energy Market Report is our comprehensive annual read on the market: wholesale trends, the price cap trajectory, supplier landscape and the policy decisions that will shape bills through 2026.
It is designed as a single reference point that connects the dots between global gas markets and the number on your bill.
Key findings
- Wholesale gas remains the dominant driver of the UK price cap.
- Price volatility, not just the level, is the key risk for households in 2026.
- The supplier market has stabilised after years of exits and consolidation.
- Policy costs are an increasing share of the typical bill.
The wholesale picture
UK prices track global gas markets closely. We summarise the supply and demand factors — storage, weather, geopolitics — that set the direction for the year.
Volatility remains the watchword: even where average prices are stable, sharp swings can catch households out.
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Methodology
- Analysis combines NESO (National Energy System Operator) system data, Ofgem cap modelling and European gas storage data.
- Forecasts are scenario-based and reviewed as new data is published.
Sources & references
- Ofgem — Energy price cap — UK regulator's quarterly price cap announcements
- National Energy System Operator (NESO) — electricity-system data — Electricity demand, supply mix and grid data
- Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) — AGSI — European gas storage levels
- DESNZ — UK energy statistics — Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.
Editorial note
PowerGuardian publishes independent, UK-focused research, analysis and commentary on household energy costs. Confirmed data, our own estimates, forecasts and scenarios are labelled separately so you can see which is which.
This report is reviewed at each Ofgem price cap announcement and whenever a source dataset it relies on is revised. It was last reviewed on 7 July 2026.
We take no commission from energy suppliers for the rankings, scores or figures shown here.
Read our editorial policy and corrections policy.
