Executive summary
The UK Energy Market Report is our comprehensive annual read on the market: wholesale trends, the price cap trajectory, supplier landscape and the policy decisions that will shape bills through 2026.
It is designed as a single reference point that connects the dots between global gas markets and the number on your bill.
Key findings
- Wholesale gas remains the dominant driver of the UK price cap.
- Price volatility, not just the level, is the key risk for households in 2026.
- The supplier market has stabilised after years of exits and consolidation.
- Policy costs are an increasing share of the typical bill.
The wholesale picture
UK prices track global gas markets closely. We summarise the supply and demand factors — storage, weather, geopolitics — that set the direction for the year.
Volatility remains the watchword: even where average prices are stable, sharp swings can catch households out.
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Methodology
- Analysis combines National Grid ESO system data, Ofgem cap modelling and European gas storage data.
- Forecasts are scenario-based and reviewed as new data is published.
Sources & references
- Ofgem — Energy price cap — UK regulator's quarterly price cap announcements
- National Grid ESO — System data — Electricity demand, supply mix and grid data
- Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) — AGSI — European gas storage levels
- DESNZ — UK energy statistics — Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.
