Executive summary
The UK Energy Market Report is our comprehensive annual read on the market: wholesale trends, the price cap trajectory, supplier landscape and the policy decisions that will shape bills through 2026.
It is designed as a single reference point that connects the dots between global gas markets and the number on your bill.
Key findings
- Wholesale gas remains the dominant driver of the UK price cap.
- Price volatility, not just the level, is the key risk for households in 2026.
- The supplier market has stabilised after years of exits and consolidation.
- Policy costs are an increasing share of the typical bill.
The wholesale picture
UK prices track global gas markets closely. We summarise the supply and demand factors — storage, weather, geopolitics — that set the direction for the year.
Volatility remains the watchword: even where average prices are stable, sharp swings can catch households out.
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Methodology
- Analysis combines NESO (National Energy System Operator) system data, Ofgem cap modelling and European gas storage data.
- Third-party forecasts are attributed to their publisher and dated when checked.
Sources & references
- Ofgem — Energy price cap — UK regulator's quarterly price cap announcements
- National Energy System Operator (NESO) — electricity-system data — Electricity demand, supply mix and grid data
- Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) — AGSI — European gas storage levels
- DESNZ — UK energy statistics — Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
Figures are checked against primary sources before publication. See our methodology for details.
Editorial note
PowerGuardian publishes independent, UK-focused research, analysis and commentary on household energy costs. Confirmed data, PowerGuardian calculations and attributed third-party forecasts are labelled separately so you can see which is which.
This report is reviewed at each Ofgem price cap announcement and whenever a source dataset it relies on is revised. It was last reviewed on 7 July 2026.
Commercial arrangements never affect the rankings, scores or figures shown here.
Read our editorial policy and corrections policy.
