Public data register
Forecasts
PowerGuardian price-cap outlook
Our estimates of the price cap in future periods. The numbers are currently withheld because we cannot show the calculation behind them.
Provenance
Provenance incomplete
- What it is
- Our estimates of the price cap in future periods. The numbers are currently withheld because we cannot show the calculation behind them.
- How it is produced
- PowerGuardian calculation
- Source
- PowerGuardian's own estimate. No input dataset is recorded for it.
- Coverage
- Great Britain
- Period
- Cap periods after the one Ofgem has already announced
- Last verified
- Not recorded
- Update cadence
- An automated job rewrites the estimates once a week. That is a refresh, not a check by a person.
- Where it lives
Database table price_predictions, read through usePredictions()- Delivered by
- Read live from the database
How the figure is produced
- What the estimate is meant to be: what a typical household would pay in a year if the cap moved as we expect in a future period.
- How it is produced today: a weekly automated job writes a figure for each future period. It does not record which wholesale prices, network costs or policy costs it used, so the same figure cannot be reproduced or checked afterwards.
- What that means: we treat these figures as unsupported and do not publish them on the outlook page. Only the cap periods Ofgem has already confirmed are shown there.
- Nothing is deleted. Every figure we published before is kept in the dated revision history, so a superseded estimate can still be read.
No downloadable table is offered for this dataset while its provenance is incomplete.
What this figure cannot tell you
- Only Ofgem sets the cap. Any estimate of a future period is our own view and can be wrong by a wide margin.
- There is no recorded input dataset and no check by a person, so we cannot demonstrate how a figure was reached.
- Confidence labels (high, medium, low) were removed. They were based on how far ahead the period was, not on any measured accuracy.
- These figures are never stored with, or presented as, the official Ofgem cap.
Where it is published
Related records
- Current Ofgem energy price cap — The headline annual figure and capped unit rates and standing charges for a typical Direct Debit household.
- Forecast revision history — The dated record of every published forecast revision, kept so past estimates cannot be quietly overwritten.
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