Public data register
Forecasts
PowerGuardian price-cap outlook
Modelled cap estimates for forthcoming quarters, with a stated confidence level for each period.
Provenance
Provenance documented
- What it is
- Modelled cap estimates for forthcoming quarters, with a stated confidence level for each period.
- How it is produced
- PowerGuardian calculation
- Source
- PowerGuardian modelled outlook, informed by published wholesale and market data
- Coverage
- Great Britain
- Period
- Forthcoming cap quarters
- Last verified
- Not recorded
- Update cadence
- Weekly
- Where it lives
Database table price_predictions, read through usePredictions()- Delivered by
- Read live from the database
How the figure is produced
- Each quarter carries a modelled cap estimate, a best-available-deal estimate and a confidence level.
- Named drivers are recorded against every period so a reader can see what the estimate depends on.
- Each published revision is appended to an immutable revision history, so a superseded forecast can still be inspected.
The data
| Period | Cap estimate (£/year) | Best deal estimate (£/year) | Confidence | Named drivers | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec) | 1790 | 1650 | high | Winter demand increase | Wholesale gas firming slightly | Storage levels key | 2026-05-18T06:00:13.652+00:00 |
| Q1 2027 (Jan-Mar) | 1850 | 1700 | medium | Peak winter demand | Potential for cold snaps | LNG competition with Asia | 2026-05-18T06:00:13.652+00:00 |
| Q2 2027 (Apr-Jun) | 1720 | 1590 | medium | Spring demand reduction | Wholesale gas softening | Renewables output rising | 2026-05-18T06:00:13.652+00:00 |
| Q3 2027 (Jul-Sep) | 1650 | 1520 | low | Continued summer demand dip | Gas storage replenishment | Global economic outlook | 2026-05-18T06:00:13.652+00:00 |
| Q4 2027 (Oct-Dec) | 1760 | 1620 | low | Return of winter demand | Geopolitical stability | Carbon price impact | 2026-05-18T06:00:13.652+00:00 |
| Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep) | 1862 | 1690 | high | Ofgem Jul–Sep 2026 cap set at £1,862 | Wholesale gas easing slightly | Lower summer demand | 2026-07-18T13:26:32.148475+00:00 |
- PowerGuardian public data register — modelled price-cap outlook
- Modelled by PowerGuardian. This is not a published Ofgem figure and must not be cited as one.
- Confidence falls the further out the period is.
What this figure cannot tell you
- A forecast is not a published figure. Only Ofgem sets the cap, and it can move sharply on wholesale prices, policy or weather.
- Confidence falls the further out the period is. Later quarters are directional, not precise.
- Forecasts are never presented as, or stored alongside, the official cap record.
Where it is published
Related records
- Current Ofgem energy price cap — The headline annual figure and capped unit rates and standing charges for a typical Direct Debit household.
- Forecast revision history — The dated record of every published forecast revision, kept so past estimates cannot be quietly overwritten.
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